(RAAD & DAAD): HOEDJE AF VOOR SETH KLARMAN!

(RAAD & DAAD): HOEDJE AF VOOR SETH KLARMAN!

SETH KLARMAN, Manager van BAUPOST in Boston (U.S.A.), met $ 27 miljard onder beheer, steekt een WAARSCHUWENDE vinger op. Hij wijst op het toenemende onderscheid tussen de echte economie en de aandelenbeurzen. Als dit eenmaal draait, dan is er een langdurige daling te verwachten, waar slechts enkelen op voorbereid zijn.

Hoe is het zover gekomen? Het is de menselijke natuur van hebzucht en angst. Bovendien worden de markten tegenwoordig vooral bepaald door vermogensbeheerders, NIET door de eigenaren van die vermogens. De meeste vermogensbeheerders kunnen zich geen lange termijn horizon veroorloven, maar moeten, uit lijfsbehoud, gelijke tred houden met de stuwkracht (‘momentum’) van de markt. Daarom zijn de markten meer INEFFICIENT dan ooit en ontstaan er BUBBELS, die ONVERMIJDELIJK  ZULLEN BARSTEN.

(Zie LINK onderaan):

Robert Schiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E valuation is over 25, a level exceeded only three times before – prior to the 1929, 2000 and 2007 market crashes. Indeed, on almost any metric, the U.S. equity market is historically quite expensive.

There is a growing gap between the financial markets and the real economy.

In Silicon Valley, it seems that business plans – a narrative of how one intends to make money – are once again far more valuable than many actual businesses engaged in real world commerce and whose revenues exceed expenses.

Europe isn’t fixed either, but you wouldn’t be able to tell that from investor sentiment.

Welcome to “The Truman Show” market.

The world Truman inhabits turns out to be phony.

All the Trumans – the economists, fund managers, traders, market pundits – know at some level that the environment in which they operate is NOT what it seems on the surface.

The Fed can change how things look, it CANNOT change what things are.

When the show ends, those self-deluded Trumans will be mad as hell and probably broke as well.

Someday, financial markets will again decline. Someday, rising stock and bond markets will no longer be government policy – maybe not today or tomorrow, but someday. Someday, QE will end and money won’t be free. Someday, corporate failure will be permitted. Someday, the economy will turn down again, and someday, somewhere, somehow, investors will lose money and once again come to favor capital preservation over speculation. Someday, interest rates will be higher, bond prices lower, and the prospective return from owning fixed-income instruments will again be roughly commensurate with the risk.

Someday, professional investors will come to work and fear will have come to the markets and that fear will spread like wildfire. The news flow will be bad, and the markets will be tumbling.

“Buy the dips” will be replaced with “what was I thinking?”

Not surprisingly, lessons learned in 2008 were only learned temporarily. These are the inevitable cycles of greed and fear, of peaks and troughs. Can we say when it will end? No. Can we say that it will end? Yes. And when it ends and the trend reverses, here is what we can say for sure. Few will be ready. Few will be prepared.

http://outlierallocators.com/tag/baupost-group/

Deze raad moet men inderdaad ter harte nemen, voordat het te laat is.

DIEDERIK SCHMULL

10 Maart, 2014
LONDEN